Labor's Josh Burns holds the inner-city Melbourne seat of Macnamara by 12.2 per cent. But the seat is high on the Greens target list, and their local campaigners believe they can snatch a win from Albanese.

Despite appearing safe for Labor, the 2022 result in Macnamara was a close content between the Labor, Liberal and Greens candidate. The decisive factor was who got excluded before the final preference distribution.

> If Labor makes the final two, they are well-placed to win on preferences from the Greens and Liberals.

> If Labor comes third after the Greens and Liberals, their preferences would likely flow to the Greens, handing them victory.

With the parties nearly tied last time, even a small swing could shift the outcome – either helping the Greens win or pushing them further behind. Adding to the uncertainty is Labor’s decision to run an open ticket, meaning they’re not directing preferences, making the flow of votes harder to predict.

This is definitely a seat to watch.