The “energy transition” is a delusion according to the Manhattan Institute, and they have the data to prove it here.
Research conducted by the institute shows green energy is behind inflation, there’s no evidence renewables cost less than traditional sources of energy, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to go “net zero” in the even the medium-term future, and trying to get there will demand a huge increase in mining.
Check out the data that proves it below.
Green energy mandates are the cause of inflation.
- The price of oil, which powers nearly 97% of all transportation, is on track to reach or exceed half-century highs, and gasoline prices have climbed
- The price of natural gas, accounting for 40% of all industrial energy use and one-fourth of global electricity, has soared past a decadal high
- Coal prices are also at a decadal high. Coal fuels 40% of global electricity; it is also used to make 70% of all steel and accounts for half its cost of production
- Note: oil, gas and coal prices are at sky-high levels because banks and governments have DEMONISED fossil fuels and scared investors away from backing new projects
- As we’ve said before, we’re not battling inflation, we’re battling “greenflation”
There is NO evidence that wind, solar and electric vehicles cost less or the same than traditional energy sources or modes of transportation.
- Added up over the past two decades, the cumulative subsidies across the world for biofuels, wind, and solar approach about $5 trillion, all of that to supply roughly 5 per cent of global energy
- At today’s and likely future prices, building enough batteries to store 12 hours of electricity for the United States would cost about $1.5 trillion, and that scale of storage would still leave the nation regularly third-world dark. The alternative? Build about $100 billion worth of conventional hydrocarbon-based backup that can keep lights on for days and weeks when needed, not just hours
It is IMPOSSIBLE to go net zero in the short-medium term.
- The IEA’s net zero energy transition path would require a construction program that could, within 20 years, build out a 15-fold increase over today’s solar/wind hardware
- The transition vision also entails building infrastructures that require using about a 1,000% greater quantity of material inputs to produce the same quantity of delivered energy as conventional machines
- This would be analogous to replacing—not repairing or augmenting—all existing U.S. highways built since 1921 and doing so in about one-third the time it originally took while using 1,000% more materials per road-mile
Going net zero will require a HUGE increase in mining
- To go net zero, the supply of minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel, and rare earths will have to increase by 4,200 per cent, 2,500 per cent, 1,900 per cent, and 700 per cent, respectively, by 2040
- For example, about 400 pounds more aluminum and about 150 pounds more copper are needed to build an electric car rather than a standard gasoline-powered vehicle
- The Chinese Communist Party dominate the mining and processing of the metals required to go net zero
- More than $5 trillion in subsidies have gone to renewables, and yet as this graph shows they’ve only produced a fraction of the world’s energy over the last three decades.
The trend in this graph shows that as access to reliable energy use increases, so does a nation’s average GDP. When countries have cheap, reliable energy, wealth increases.
An electric vehicle has to be driven for over 75,000 miles (about 120,000 kilometres) until it emits less CO2 than a diesel car. In 2020, the average Australian vehicle travelled 13,301 km per year, meaning it would take around 9 years to emit less carbon emissions than a diesel vehicle.
Drive.com says “The average age of Australia’s vehicle fleet is 10.1 years, with passenger vehicles representing the youngest vehicles on road,” and that “Vehicles up to five years of age account for the largest proportion of the national fleet (30.5 per cent), followed by vehicles aged 6-10 years (27.2).”
This means that most cars on the road, 57.7%, are under the required 9 years needed to start emitting less CO2 than a diesel car.
Electric vehicle batteries are extremely inefficient – and very little progress has been made on improving them since 2000. An electric vehicle needs a massive half-ton battery just to match the range of about 40 litres of petrol, which only weighs about 40 kilograms.
Using renewables to provide the same power as machines that burn oil, natural gas, or coal requires increasing the use of minerals dramatically. Lithium, for example, goes up by around 4,200%. Imagine 100ml of water next 4.2 litres.
Others also skyrocket, like Graphite by 2,500%, Nickel by 1,900%, rare earth minerals by 700%, and Copper by 300%.
The energy sector today uses only about 10–20 per cent of the total global production of various minerals. But International Energy Agency transition goals - even ones far short of eliminating hydrocarbons - would raise that to a 50–70 per cent share, or more, including using half of all of today’s aluminium supply.
Such unprecedented demand would drive mineral prices higher, raising the costs to build products in every market using those minerals (e.g., appliances, houses, vehicles, electronics), including the alternative energy machines themselves
Minerals and metal commodities constitute 60–70 percent of the cost to produce a solar module (such as a rooftop panel) or a lithium battery, and more than 20 per cent of the cost of a wind turbine
The trend of lowering prices for solar, battery and wind turbines has slowed and reversed. Prices are going back up, and will continue to do so into the future. Next time someone says the cost of renewables is coming down, you can show them this graph.
As the International Energy Agency points out, the future commodity price escalations could “eat up” any anticipated reductions in manufacturing costs for transition hardware.
China is the top producer of aluminium, critical for transition machines, with a 40 per cent market share, meaning as countries continue to push for renewable energy, China gets richer. Then they use that money to continue building their own coal fired power plants.
The U.S. is dependent on imports for 100 percent of 17 critical minerals, and, for 28 others, net imports account for more than half of domestic demand
The data doesn’t lie. Going “Net Zero” has a clear, and very expensive, cost.
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