In surprising news, The Guardian have revealed models that stopping immigration would increase Australian wages 7.5 per cent.

Unemployment would drop 0.2 per cent.

KPMG found that while the economy would shrink 2.4 per cent, their overall picture means Australia’s GDP per capita would be 4.65 per cent better than if migration levels stay the same.

Of course, The Guardian, haven’t framed it this way.

The headline reads “Slashing migration would actually lead to higher house prices in Australia” and they write:

Eliminating migration for the coming decade would actually leave property prices 2.3% higher by the mid-2030s than would be the case under a “base case” of migration continuing as expected, according to economic modelling by KPMG; and there are other negative economic consequences too.

But, alert and attentive readers might note that 2.3 per cent higher isn’t that bad. Especially if it means their projections of two million fewer residents are around in 2035 compared to current projections.

There are concerns in the modelling about the debt picture, although it seems like Labor are just making that worse anyway.

And you would still have to keep an eye on inflation with the wages going up.

But overall, despite The Guardian’s framing, the overall picture of no migration compared to the current rate is not that bad.

And it is extremely unlikely that if you change the migration picture, all the other elements of the job market and economy simply stay the same.

Young Aussies might get back into trades, open shops, and re-engage with the parts of the economy they are struggling to right now.

The fact that the picture isn’t so bad goes to the heart of the debate and all those politicians and business people claiming an economic catastrophe if we do anything about it.

Of course, there will be trade offs. There always are.

But our social cohesion, ensuring there’s opportunity for our young people, and getting the demand for housing under control are all trade offs as well.

So well done to The Guardian for modelling this and highlighting that we can have some good outcomes if we cut immigration after all!

^{Image source: iStock}